Well unfortunately for this passage you can be waiting a long time for a perfect weather window, basically I dont think it really happens. The winds are variable, from all over the place sometimes light others blowing a gale. So you just have to wait and get one that doesn't look too bad and may have lighter winds were you may have to motor for some of the time before the next southerly "Buster"comes. The other obstacle is the Agulhas current. This races down the Mozambique coast from North to South apparently getting to speeds 3-4kts. This is were it can get tricky if your caught in a southerly blow with the current against it and massive waves form so you have to go inside the 200m contour were there's no current. But also in the middle of the Channel there are massive canyons that spin the current around all over the place but luckily for us we have internet means of seeing were they are, hopefully:) and when you do get in it and the weather in favourable you're laughing!
So just pick what looks like a reasonable 8 day forecast and go for it! That's what we and the 2 Finnish boats have done as it looks like we he fully won't get too strong a southerlies when we hit the other side of the channel.
So we left yesterday morning with the strong tide helping us as there was no wind so we motored until lunch. Then it came in from the west, exactly were we wanted to go. So it was a very long night bashing to windward 50degrees off course on each tack with 20-25kts over the deck with 2 reefs and the staysail just plugging away. Then about 3am it finally went SSW and we could head west and make some ground. We have been sailing nice since 8am with full sail again making good progress!
Our midday position is 15*16.000s 44*16.000e
140nm sailed since leaving but only 100nm made good until the first waypoint. 1052nm to SA.
Weather is fine now and we can stop eating noodles!
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